Monday, February 23, 2009

Save the Economy with a Trip to Mars

Watching the government trying to help us with the economy in a tailspin doesn't always inspire confidence. Despite having already pumped out hundreds of billions of dollars-the financial system remains in disarray and the auto companies are back in line for more handouts. As unemployment keeps rising, its clear we've got to do something, and besides the government, nobody else is really in a position to act.

Looking to history for guidance, the Obama Administration and the Democrats have crafted a New Deal style package to save us with government public works projects. While this is a great start, its important to think about the Great Depression and what really ended it. Truth is, Roosevelt's big government social programs may have saved many people from starvation and homelessness, but they did not rescue the economy. Obama's stimulus package can be viewed at best as a stop-gap measure to keep us from crashing too hard. 

Let's really take a look at the Great Depression. What got us out of it? Well the answer is obvious. World War 2. 

So what was it about World War 2 that put a stop to the depression? It was massive government spending. But not the kind Obama and Congress are talking about-the kind of spending World War 2 generated was money for industrial output, scientific research, and let's not forget the "employment" of millions of young men that were sent off to fight the battles. To save the economy, if the government is going to do it there's going to have to be a MASSIVE infusion of cash-and its going to have to be quality cash. The meaning of quality cash will be explained in a moment. 

In other words what's needed today is a situation that mimics what the government really did to end the Great Depression. And as much as I admire Roosevelt, it wasn't his social programs and road projects that did it. All those programs did was keep the skid from going to far down the abyss. Huge military spending is what ended the depression. But this spending not only differed from the "New Deal" in scale, it differed in character. 

Hire a guy to build a road at $10/Hour, and he can put food on the table. Hire engineers and technicians to design new aircraft, and quality laborers to build them, and you're creating a workforce that can buy cars, buy houses, buy new televisions and take other actions that jump start the economy.  

If the economy can't right itself on its own with a push from the stimulus package, what we're going to need is a situation that mimics World War 2. Hopefully things won't deteriorate so much that another large scale war is the result. Let's not wait for that but instead act now with government programs that jump start industrial production and scientific research. Let's take a trip to Mars.

At first sight such a program would seem incredibly frivolous. But really ramping NASA up for serious space exploration would have reverberating effects throughout the economy. Right now NASA is already putting some of this in place with their Apollo-like replacement of the shuttle that might someday go to the moon, but that kind of effort is tiny compared to what would really be needed to take a trip to Mars. 

Such an effort would open up thousands of jobs. Spacecraft and supporting systems would have to be designed, giving thousands of engineers work. New facilities would have to be constructed, giving people the kind of jobs the stimulus package is already proposing. When you build huge new government facilities then you need janitors, restaurants to serve all the workers, and new housing. With good jobs all these new NASA employees would go out and buy cars. Its a win-win situation that would actually trigger economic growth.

Now of course pumping money into NASA isn't going to do it all on its own. But we have a lot of high tech needs. The white elephant in the room is of course energy. 

So the second part of the governments attempt to mimic World War 2 should be massive infusions of cash into private companies and government research labs for energy research. Money should be provided for entrepreneurs who focus their efforts on innovative energy products and transportation. 

Once again, this type of effort would create high-paying jobs for engineers, administrators, and technicians. New facilities would have to be built. Janitors would have to be hired, and again restaurants and laundromats would spring up around all these new shiny research facilities. The newly employed people would all go out and buy cars and televisions.  If you really want to help out "Joe Six-Pack" don't give him a $10 an hour job building a road, give him a good job at a solar energy research facility that can inspire and save us from future disaster. 

The only ingredient missing from this analogy is the large-scale "employment" that the war provided by shipping young men off to the military. Maybe we can think of something to mimic this too that doesn't involve killing people. 

Unfortunately the politicians never disappoint when it comes to a lack of imagination. Can you imagine a group of congressmen calling a news conference to demand a new energy research lab and $100 billion for entrepreneurs who devote themselves to renewable energy? Instead what we see is the same old show-Democrats pumping money into health-care, "education" and other feel-good social programs. The Republicans, instead of responding with imaginative leadership just complain and act like they're not going to go along. My fear is the government won't really be able to save us and the economy will stagnate for years, maybe even a decade or more. Who knows how bad its really going to get. Maybe a large scale war will be needed to end it all. 



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